Ready for real money?
The rules were agreed before any results came in, so the decision is objective. Every box must be green before any real money is used, and even then: start small, with your approval on every trade.
Evidence (checked automatically)
Your checklist (tick when done)
Why these rules
- • Beat the baseline, not just make money. In a rising market almost anything makes money; the question is whether it adds anything over a simple default.
- • Beyond luck. With thousands of forecasts some models will look good by chance. Under 5% chance of luck is the bar.
- • Live and backtest must agree. A backtest alone can be fooled by hindsight; a few live months alone can be luck. Both together are far more convincing.
- • Limit the downside. A strategy that could fall more than 20% is too painful to stick with, even if it ends up ahead.
- • The human checks matter. Tax, rules and an outside opinion protect you from the things the numbers can't see.